Our two boys have made it safely to their first new calendar year, and with a bit of luck, Leri will have too. An osprey's first winter in Africa is all about survival; if they can make it through to the first significant rains of the year, they have a much better chance then of making it back to the UK the following spring. There is still some way to go, it will not rain in earnest until June, but there is something else to look forward to.

Around 90% of the ospreys in Senegal and Gambia right now will be two years old or more this year, which means that in two to three months, they will all start their migrations north. Mature and established breeding ospreys will start their journeys as early as the middle of February onwards, younger non-breeding birds usually set off a little later. By April though, nine out of every ten ospreys will have gone, and gone for several months. As rivers and tributaries get drier and drier, at least the fierce competition for the better feeding areas will have almost disappeared.

Dulas has been extremely settled in this part of the Gambia since he arrived here at the end of September, wandering off for just a few days in November to see if the grass was any greener somewhere else. He is still not making many trips to the Gambia River itself despite the fact it is only four miles south of him - less than 10 minutes away. Is there too much competition there from adult birds? If there is, he has some good news coming his way in a few weeks.

There has been a little change in Dulas' movements, however. He has not been to the area to the right of the map where the concentrated blue waypoints are since December 17th, slowly but surely moving slightly west. Is this area that served him well for his first 10 weeks in Gambia drying up? Frederic has already told us that many parts where we can see water on Google Earth maps have dried up.

It will be fascinating to see what Dulas does next, whether he will end up on the Gambia River itself in March as other ospreys magically disappear. Let's hope so, the river will see him through until the rains come again.